The Royals and Tigers were projected as the top two teams in the division by several models, but both have exited the game with records below .500. The Tigers may have hit rock bottom after suffering a four-game loss to the Twins, but recovered their standing by defeating the Marlins last weekend.
Kansas City Royals (7-9) vs. Detroit Tigers (7-9) at Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Royals: 3.38 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 4.06 runs allowed/game (10th)
Tigers: 4.38 runs scored/game (14th), 3.75 runs conceded/game (7th)
Only two teams have hit fewer home runs than the Tigers, and only one team has stolen fewer bases. Top rookie Kevin McGonigal has been as advertised, having hits in 12 of his 15 games, with four multi-hit games. Catcher Dillon Dingler arrived late last year and hit .296/.355/.441 in the second half. Colt Keith hit .163/.217/.186 against left-handers last year. Jack McKinstry was an All-Star last year, hitting .323/.397/.594 with home runs.
Kerry Carpenter has a career bat of .219/.284/.313 in 37 games against the Royals. Spencer Torkelson is 0 for 8 with four strikeouts in his career against the Colts. Gleyber Torres is 0 for 9 with four strikeouts against Chris Bubic.
Framber Valdez was the biggest offseason signing for the Tigers, and the two-time All-Star has the fifth-highest fWAR by a starting pitcher since 2022. He throws a sinker half the time, which prompted a 59 percent groundball rate last year. Bobby Witt Jr. is 2 for 20 with five strikeouts in his career against Valdez.
Jack Flaherty had a very good 2024 with a 3.17 ERA, but he faltered last year and tied for the league-lead in losses with a 4.64 ERA. Only five pitchers in baseball this year have issued more walks than Flaherty. He has a 2.78 ERA in six career starts against the Royals.
Keider Montero has filled in brilliantly for the injured Justin Verlander, throwing six shutout innings in a win over the Marlins last time out. He had a 3.72 ERA in 12 starts last year, but a 5.51 ERA in eight relief appearances. Opponents hit .308 on his slider last year.
Kenley Jensen has 478 career saves, although he has only made two out of three save opportunities this year. The 38-year-old had a strong second half last year with a 1.48 ERA. Will West had a 58 percent groundball rate last year, ninth-highest among relievers. Drew Anderson had a 2.27 ERA as a starter in the Korean Baseball Organization last year. The Tigers re-signed Kyle Finnegan after he posted a 1.50 ERA in 16 games following a trade from the Nationals at last summer’s deadline.
FanGraphs still has the Tigers 34 percent chance There is a lot of buzz about winning the division, with the Royals at 22 percent, and the Twins (23 percent) and Guardians (19 percent) each. This could be a very competitive division, but to stay in it, the Royals will have to perform better against the Tigers than last year, when they lost 9 out of 13 points in head-to-head encounters.