Today’s Wimbledon tips: Monday 6 July
1.5 points Grigor Dimitrov (-3.5) beats Arthur Ferry on game handicap at 10/11 (Boyle Sports)
Flavio Cobolli beats Alex De Minaur 3/1 (Normal)
0.5pt Taylor Fritz beats Alexander Bublik 3-0 at 11/4 (bet365)
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Alex De Minaur vs Flavio Coboli
Koboli entered the tournament as the winner, defeating Karen Khachanov in the final round.
On Saturday his score was only 13/10 but now he is out at 3/1 which seems huge to me.
I mentioned the other day how Khachanov had never beaten a top 20 player at Wimbledon and the same applies here with De Minaur’s best win by rankings eight years ago when he defeated world No. 29 clay specialist Marco Cecchinato. He is only 3-5 against the top 50 in SW19.
Koboli’s win over 19th seed Khachanov took his record at this tournament to an impressive 8–2 – his run to the last eight here 12 months ago means he has played in as many Wimbledon quarter-finals as his opponent.
While De Minaur is known for his all-day running attitude and recovery ability, here he faces a player who has the strength off the field that is capable of tearing holes in that famous defense.
And, as he showed recently at the French Open where he made the final, the Italian’s serve is not always given the respect it deserves.
De Minaur was not at his best when he lost a set against Zach Swajda last time out and although, long term, he is more established on this surface, Koboli’s recent improvement suggests to me that he has been mispriced.
Backing Koboli on the Game Handicap, where he gets a start of 5.5, looks a solid play but given the increased odds I’m willing to gamble on his upside.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Arthur Ferry
I’m surprised Dimitrov isn’t short here.
The move to grass has cured his 2026 ailments and he has looked in good form having dismissed Jakub Mencic and Matteo Berrettini in the last two rounds.
The former semi-finalist has a real grasscourt nous and while Ferry has outdone himself with his excellent first week performance, I suspect his time is now up.
The Briton will be playing his first match on Center Court which will add to the nerves on the occasion, while he will have another first to recover from a match that lasted more than four and a half hours.
Given the time it took him to get past Zizou Bergs on Saturday and his lack of experience dealing with it, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw his physical condition against Dimitrov.
For me, the bet here is to back the favorite to cover the -3.5 game handicap.
I can see him dominating this one and even if Ferry is competitive early on, his chances at the finish could be good for this bet.
taylor fritz vs alexander bublik
The two larger servers should prepare for an aces shoot-out on Court One.
Fritz starts as the 1/2 favourite, which despite the head-to-head reading being 4-4, seems fair enough.
In fact the Americans have won four of the last five meetings, two of which were played on grass. Notably, they were both won in straight sets – Fritz won 95% of his service games and 33% of his return games in those matches.
Recently, just a few weeks ago in Stuttgart, Fritz won 6-4, 6-4.
Looking at those stats, a 3-0 win at 11/4 is attractive.
Bublik is knocking down 91 aces so far in SW19 – but recent matches with Fritz suggest he struggles to achieve the same kind of cut-through. In those grasscourt matches, he has scored only 11 runs.
And the second serve has been an even bigger problem – it won only 31% of points for Bublik in Stuttgart in 2022 and only 35% in Eastbourne.
I am always wary of set betting on grass because there is not much to go wrong.
When I started writing this, I noticed that three of their last six meetings have ended in first-set tie-breaks – a 13/8 shot here. This shows how the set can be easily dealt with by a few digits.
However, looking at the stats and probabilities, I would have a small bet at 11/4.
Bublik is a player who can get his head down when things aren’t going well and if Fritz gets ahead early, that could be the case again considering his recent record in this match.
Posted on 05/07/2026 at 16:42 BST
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