Gujarat Titans strengthened their IPL 2026 playoff position after an impressive 77-run win over Rajasthan Royals in Jaipur, with projections showing that their chances of GT qualification have increased after a huge increase in the net run rate generated by the win.With the latest win, Gujarat Titans now have a 72.52% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 38.71% chance of finishing in the top two in terms of runs scored, their biggest ever IPL win. Shubman Gill’s 84, Sai Sudarshan’s 55 and Rashid Khan’s brilliant 4/33 gave GT a dominant win, which moved them to second place in the standings and increased their net run rate from -0.147 to +0.228.Meanwhile, despite the loss, Rajasthan Royals are projected to finish slightly ahead of Gujarat overall, with 80.31% playoff chances and 44.07% top-two chances.
This contradiction is largely driven by the rest of the program. While GT will still face Sunrisers Hyderabad, Kolkata Knight Riders and Chennai Super Kings in their final three league matches, Rajasthan’s remaining fixtures will be against Delhi Capitals, Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians – all teams currently outside the top seven and making fairly weak playoff projections.
IPL 2026 Playoff Possibilities
| Team | playoff chances | Top-two prospects | average closing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRH | 89.59% | 60.22% | 2.64 |
| PBKS | 84.81% | 53.25% | 2.65 |
| RR | 80.31% | 44.07% | 3.54 |
| rcb | 77.55% | 41.98% | 3.08 |
| GT | 72.52% | 38.71% | 4.25 |
| Chennai Super Kings | 38.81% | 12.62% | 5.45 |
| KKR | 5.23% | 0.06% | 7.11 |
| MI | 1.50% | 0.01% | 8.46 |
| lsg | 1.56% | 0.00% | 8.72 |
| DC | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.08 |
The result also created small changes in the broader playoff race. Punjab Kings strengthened marginally to 84.81%, while Sunrisers Hyderabad remained the strongest playoff favorites with 89.59%.Royal Challengers Bangalore remained steady at 77.55%, with their huge +1.234 net run rate continuing to provide one of the strongest safety cushions in the league despite recent inconsistency.Chennai Super Kings suffered a slight dip after GT’s win as a direct rival effectively moved ahead in the standings, leaving CSK at 38.81%.Kolkata Knight Riders remain distant outsiders with only 5.23%, while Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants have been hovering around the 1.5% mark, realistically requiring almost complete closure combined with several collapses elsewhere.Meanwhile, Delhi Capitals failed to qualify in any of the latest 100,000 projected simulations despite surviving mathematically on paper.
Remaining IPL 2026 fixtures: Predicted winners
| match | Stability | estimated favorite |
|---|---|---|
| match 53 | csk vs lsg | Chennai Super Kings |
| match 54 | rcb vs mi | rcb |
| match 55 | pbks vs dc | PBKS |
| match 56 | gt vs srh | GT (very close) |
| match 57 | rcb vs kkr | rcb |
| match 58 | pbks vs mi | PBKS |
| match 59 | lsg vs csk | CSK (very close) |
| match 60 | kkr vs gt | GT |
| match 61 | pbks vs rcb | PBKS (too close) |
| match 62 | dc vs rr | RR |
| match 63 | csk vs srh | SRH |
| match 64 | RR vs LSG | RR |
| match 65 | kkr vs mi | KKR |
| match 66 | gt vs csk | GT |
| match 67 | srh vs rcb | SRH |
| match 68 | lsg vs pbks | PBKS |
| match 69 | MI vs RR | RR |
The projections were prepared using a simulation model in which the remaining IPL 2026 league stage was repeated 100,000 times using current points, net run rate, recent form, remaining fixtures and weighted match-win probabilities.
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