What matters today
- Implied trading range: 22,700 to 24,000
- OI Resistance: 24,000
- OI Support: 23,000
- Structure: Bounded
- Intraday Tone: Bullishness above 22,900
Open Interest- NIFTY50
positioning
| trend | Wednesday | Tuesday |
|---|---|---|
| FII Index Short % (Futures) | 85% | 86% |
| PCR | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| OI (24,000 CE strike) | 77 lakh | 64 lakhs |
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Organizational Intelligence
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree for the twentieth consecutive session and sold equities worth ₹1,805 crore on March 25. With this, their cumulative outflow for March has increased to ₹1,07,010 crore, the second highest monthly sales figure in the last two years.
In index futures, FIIs marginally reduced their bearish risk appetite ahead of the April series rollover. The long-to-short ratio dropped to 15:85 on March 25, indicating gradual short covering as expiration approached.
That said, the broader situation remains strongly bearish with a clear bias towards shorter contracts. Traders should remain cautious, as the tone continues in favor of selling on rallies. Unless NIFTY50 reclaims the crucial 23,850 resistance zone, the index is likely to face pressure at higher levels.
Key levels for NIFTY50
- Expiry: March 30
- Resistance: 23,850
- Support: 22,450
- Call Concentration: 24,000
- Keep concentration: 23,000
- Bullish up: 23,850
- Bearish down: 22,450
Trend Summary: 1-Hour Chart
- Price: Above 20 EMA and 50 EMA
- RSI: 58 (Neutral to Bullish)
- ADX: 26 (Trending)
NIFTY50 gained nearly 400 points on Wednesday. The index managed to maintain its morning gains throughout the day and closed near intraday highs, indicating strong buying on dips in the index amid positive global cues.
On the hourly chart, the index closed above the 20- and 50-EMA levels, indicating continued momentum. The RSI of 58 and ADX of 26 suggest an overall bullish trend on the index in the short term.
if-then playbook
Scenario 1: Nifty50 around 23,450 and 23,850
After a bearish crossover between 50 and 200 EMAs, the broader trend of Nifty50 remains weak. Immediate resistance zones are placed at 23,450, 23,850, and 24,000. Any failure to hold above these levels, especially coupled with bearish price action, could solidify the continuation of the bearish structure. However, a close above 23,450 will put the structure range bound.
Scenario 2: Nifty50 below 22,450
Immediate support for Nifty50 is placed around the 22,450 area in line with the March 23 low. With the index already correcting more than 14% from its recent all-time high, the risk-reward appears unfavorable for new shorts at current levels, unless positions are initiated near key resistance areas. However, a decisive break below 22,450 would signal fresh weakness. This could open the door for a move towards 22,000, followed by a strong support zone around 21,700.
Market Signals
GIFT Nifty futures indicate a weak start for Nifty50 on Friday amid negative global market cues. Investors remained cautious on several conflicting reports on the Middle East.
American markets closed with heavy losses on Thursday after talks between America and Iran yielded no results. The Dow Jones fell 469 points, the S&P500 fell 114 points, and the NASDAQ fell the most, 521 points or 2.3%. However, US stock market futures were trading in the green on Friday morning after President Trump delayed for 10 days the attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Crude oil prices have bounced slightly from near-term lows as conditions on the ground remain weak despite several rounds of talks. Brent crude oil prices neared $100 a barrel on Friday morning after jumping 2% on Thursday.
Growing skepticism over talks between the US and Israel dragged down Asian markets. Japanese and Hong Kong benchmark indices fell nearly 2% on Friday morning, while the Korean index fell more than 3%.
Source: Upstox and NSE.
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